UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez is right around the corner, as what promises to be an exciting night of action lands on our screens this coming weekend. The UFC have pulled out all the stops for their inaugural visit to Australia, and with the card – up to now – being free of the injuries that blighted the previous two events, the Sydney crowd should be in for a real treat on February 20th. So, what exactly should we expect to see this weekend?
Undercard
James Te Huna (11-4, 0-0 UFC) vs. Igor Pokrajac (21-6, 0-1 UFC)
The first ever UFC event in Oceania could prove to be the springboard for the career of debuting light-heavyweight James Te Huna, as the New Zealander looks to get off to a good start against Croatian 205lb’er Igor Pokrajac. Pokrajac, a member of Mirko Cro Cop’s camp, got off to a poor start in his UFC career as he dropped a decisive decision to Vladimir Matyushenko at UFC 103. While Pokrajac may be the more experienced fighter, his striking looked patchy against Matyushenko and one thing Te Huna has shown in his fights outside the UFC is an aggressive and heavy-handed approach to the striking game.
A big muscular 205lb’er, Te Huna pushes the pace from the off and if he can land a few of the big shots he has dished out to many an opponent then Pokrajac will be in serious trouble. Pokrajac is primarily a grappler, and will look to nullify Te Huna’s onslaught and test his submission defence which has been lacking on occasion in his career. The longer the fight goes the better for Pokrajac who will look to get Te Huna to the mat at any opportunity and finish the Kiwi slugger. But Te Huna’s relentless aggression will be the deciding factor in this fight, as he keeps the pressure on his opponent from the opening bell, flooring Pokrajac with a big combo and finishing him late in the 1st round.
CB Dolloway (9-2, 3-2 UFC) vs. Goran Reljic (8-0, 1-0 UFC)
It's seemed like an age since rising Croatian star Goran Reljic has fought in the UFC, decisively finishing Wilson Gouveia at UFC 84 in May 2008. A severe back injury threatened to halt the undefeated fighter's career, but a fully-healed Reljic now gets a chance to prove his worth at 185lbs. In his way stands TUF season 7 runner-up CB Dolloway, coming off a decision victory over the game Jay Silva at UFN 19 in September 2009. In his UFC debut against Gouveia, Reljic surprised all those glancing at his BJJ credentials by standing defiantly with the Brazilian banger and stopping him with strikes. Dolloway, while having acceptable standup skills to compliment his top-draw wrestling, doesn't have the versatility or power of the Croat, and to engage in a striking battle with Reljic would be ill-advised.
However, we can't ignore the huge lay-off from the fight game that Reljic has had through the serious injury he is coming off, or the fact that this is his first fight at 185lbs. The weight-cut and ring-rust could be lethal for Reljic in this fight, but luckily for him his opponent has several holes in his game that he can exploit to the full. Expect Dolloway to trade strikes with his opponent in the early stages, before he realises he is out of his depth in the stand-up and goes to his bread and butter as the fight hits the ground. Reljic might struggle to begin with, but as the fight progresses the chances of CB making a mistake increase and the Croatian will force the submission via guillotine in the 2nd round.
Chris Lytle (27-17-5, 6-9 UFC) vs. Brian Foster (13-4, 1-1 UFC)
If Spike TV had chosen to air their prelim show for UFC 110, this 170lbs contest would surely have been a lock for it. Lytle is renowned for his crowd-pleasing fights, while Foster is coming off a Fight of the Night loss to Rick Story and a huge upset victory in his mauling of Brock Larson at UFC 106. The signs look good, and this fight should deliver the expected fireworks. In the short time Foster has been in the UFC, he has displayed the sort of go-for-broke style that on paper would seem tailor-made for Lytle's crisp boxing and solid counter-striking. But Foster also has the wrestling to back up his heavy hands, and Lytle has been known to struggle against fighters with good takedowns.
Lytle holds the upper hand when it comes to experience in the Octagon, and we should expect him to use his more refined striking to stand his ground with Foster in the early stages as the HIT Squad product will likely be the aggressor. If Lytle is able to expose the holes in his opponent’s striking game, Foster will more than likely revert to his wrestling, which should play into the hands of the more experienced Lytle who will weather the storm for a while before sinking in a fight-ending triangle choke midway through the 2nd round, as Foster's enthusiasm gets the better of him.
Stephan Bonnar (11-6, 5-5 UFC) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (18-9-1, 3-1 UFC)
Krysztof ‘The Polish Experiment’ Soszynski was on a tear in the UFC light-heavyweight division, going 3-0 before he dropped a decision loss to Brandon Vera at UFC 102. With all due respect, its been a while since Stephan Bonnar has been on a similar run - the TUF season 1 veteran suffered a lengthy layoff due to injury in 2008, and his comeback was just as frustrating. 'American Psycho' suffered back to back dominating losses to Jon Jones and Mark Coleman - a loss in this fight could see Bonnar handed his walking papers, and he must know it.
Since his injury, Bonnar has looked markedly slower than his old self, and this isn't going to help him against ‘The Polish Experiment' who will waste no time in exploding on his opponent anytime he gets the chance with his bullish striking. If Soszynski showed a weakness during his stint on TUF season 8, it was his submission defence, and while Bonnar does possess a talented ground game, he may not have the speed or explosiveness on the mat to catch out his opponent. Look for Bonnar to hold his own in the first two rounds, perhaps winning one, before he begins to tire late on and takes a heap of punishment enroute to a split decision loss, and possibly an exit from the UFC.
Chris Haseman (20-16, 0-1 UFC) vs. Elvis Sinosic (8-11-2, 1-6 UFC)
In a strange move in the eyes of some, the UFC has recalled these two veteran 205lb’ers for what is likely to be a one-off fight for both men. Chris ‘The Hammer’ Haseman has been inactive since November 2008, and prior to that took a 4-year break from the fight game. Likewise, ‘The King of Rock n Rumble’ hasn’t fought since December 2007, and both guys appear to have been given this fight more as a token gesture for their efforts in the growth of MMA in their home country.
This fight is a rematch as these two met way back in 1997, with Haseman submitting Sinosic via the dreaded ‘chin to the eye’. Sinosic will certainly have the Sydney crowd behind him as he looks to avenge that loss, but first he will have to cope with Haseman’s grappling. Haseman will look to get Elvis to his back as soon as possible, where he will try to land punishment from guard and control the pace. But Sinosic is an experienced guy too, and after taking some shots on the ground look for ‘The King of Rock n Rumble’ to snatch an armbar or triangle from his back, getting the submission late in the 1st round.
Main Card
Mirko Cro Cop (25-7-2, 2-3 UFC) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-7, 0-1 UFC)
Two heavyweights in desperate need for a win, Cro Cop and Rothwell are both veterans of the sport. Once the most feared man on the planet, Cro Cop has not displayed the devastating striking he churned out so effortlessly in his PRIDE days in his time inside the Octagon. With two wins in the UFC against outmatched opponents, and some really damaging losses - including a three-round beatdown at the hands of Junior dos Santos at UFC 103 - Mirko claims to be back to form for this fight, and he will need to be if he wants to remain in the UFC.
Rothwell, who took a beating of his own against Cain Velasquez at UFC 104, will relish a stand-up battle with the Croatian, but his rather slow style might be perfectly tailored for Cro Cop to launch some of those trademark headkicks. Rothwell will not rush at Mirko in the same way he was swarmed by Dos Santos, but if Cro Cop's striking is as lethargic and telegraphed as it was in that fight, we could be in for a long night. Expect Rothwell to keep on the front foot, but ultimately get outstruck in a slow three-round kickboxing duel, with Cro Cop getting the nod from the judges.
Ryan Bader (10-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. Keith Jardine (15-6-1, 6-5 UFC)
Still undefeated in his MMA career, TUF season 8 winner Ryan ‘Darth’ Bader will look to extend his unblemished streak as he takes a huge step up in competition at UFC 110. The Arizona Combat Sports product has not looked as dominant since his time on the show, and was really pushed hard at UFC 104 by Eric Schafer. While Keith Jardine certainly represents a bigger obstacle for Bader, ‘The Dean of Mean’ also has holes in his game that can be exploited to devastating effect – just ask Jardine’s last opponent, Thiago Silva. Although Silva became the latest in a line of guys able to shatter Jardine’s debatable chin at UFC 102, the jury is out on whether Bader possesses the right kind of standup game to be able to do the same.
Jardine has been found wanting by guys that are ready to swarm him from the opening bell and simply bombard him with big hits – see Houston Alexander or Wanderlei Silva. Bader’s striking game, while definitely hard-hitting, is a lot more slow and composed and although he might rock Jardine early on, expect Keith to weather the storm and find his footing. If this fight becomes a three-round stand-up battle, Jardine should find himself coming out on top as the fight progresses. If he is to win, Bader should look to go back to basics and implement his wrestling; although this will be no easy task, as Jardine trains regularly with top-level wrestlers. Look for Bader to start strongly, then fade as he realises Jardine isn’t going anywhere, as ‘The Dean of Mean’ gets back to winning ways by outstriking and outlasting Bader enroute to a unanimous decision victory.
Joe Stevenson (31-10, 8-4 UFC) vs. George Sotiropoulos (11-2, 4-0 UFC)
An intriguing lightweight contest breaks up a televised card brimmed with heavy-hitters, as two products of The Ultimate Fighter go head to head. Local boy Sotiropoulos, a native of Victoria, will no doubt have the crowd well and truly behind him in this fight, which represents a big leap in competition from his dominant victory over Jason Dent at UFC 106. Joe ‘Daddy’ Stevenson is coming off a superb display at UFC 104 where he simply ran over Spencer Fisher, and is aiming to put himself firmly back in the title picture with another stellar performance in Sydney.
In Sotiropoulos, he is faced with a BJJ beast, with an oil-slick submission game and improved striking. Sotiropoulos should have a healthy reach advantage, and expect him to try and use it as the two feel each other out in the opening frames. Stevenson has faced taller guys before and won, like Nate Diaz at The Ultimate Fighter season 9 Finale, and should Sotiropoulos revert to trying to ground his opponent with takedown attempts, Stevenson’s solid wrestling base should be enough to fend him off. This should be an entertaining 155lb battle but look for Stevenson to frustrate the Australian for three-rounds, doing just enough to earn ‘Daddy’ the unanimous decision in front of the Sydney crowd.
Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1, 2-5 UFC) vs. Michael Bisping (18-2, 8-2 UFC)
UFC 110’s co-main event promises to be a barn-burner, as former PRIDE sensation and all-round animal Wanderlei ‘The Axe-Murderer’ Silva squares off against Britain’s own Michael ‘The Count’ Bisping in a middleweight contest that will surely throw the winner firmly into title contention. The fight marks Wanderlei’s first at 185lbs, having lost a contentious decision to Rich Franklin at UFC 99. Bisping, on the other hand, is coming into this fight on the back of what was possibly the performance of his career at UFC 105, as he finished Dennis Kang emphatically. In that fight, ‘The Count’ showed major improvements in all aspects of his game, and he will need to continue that trend if he is to overcome the devastating striking game of Silva.
Both predominantly strikers, the difference lies in knockout power, as Wanderlei has proven time and again he only needs to land one killer blow to turn the tables completely on his opponent. Bisping prefers the ‘punches in bunches’ approach, and while this has been very successful for him in the past, he will be smart enough not to try and instigate a full-blown slugfest with Silva. Wanderlei is making his middleweight debut, and this cannot be ignored considering Bisping’s always-impressive gas tank. Bisping is used to taking the marathon approach with his game-plans, as opposed to Silva’s preference to go for the sprint finish and land an early stoppage. Bisping should come in with an intelligent game-plan, and look to counter-strike and outwork his opponent in the stand-up and cardio departments. This fight could resemble Bisping vs Leben, as the Wolfslair fighter keeps his distance and patience to weather the early storms Wanderlei will no doubt bring, landing plenty of strikes on the counter as ‘The Count’ earns the tight split decision victory from the judges.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-5-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. Cain Velasquez (7-0, 5-0 UFC)
The main event is a heavyweight blockbuster with huge title implications – the winner of this contest surely cannot be ignored any longer in terms of being given a shot at the gold. Antonio Rodrigo ‘Minotauro’ Nogueira looked great in his decision victory over Randy Couture at UFC 102, while Velasquez, still undefeated in his MMA career, is on a five-fight win streak inside the Octagon, most recently manhandling IFL veteran Ben Rothwell back at UFC 104. Although Velasquez ate some huge shots from Cheick Kongo at UFC 99, many still doubt the AKA heavyweight’s chin, and if there is any heavyweight in the UFC at present who could expose this then it’s ‘Minotauro’. With his solid boxing and wealth of experience of being in such a high-pressure fight, Nogueira has the tools to halt the run of his younger opponent. If the two engage in a stand-up battle, Nogueira should come out on top, but this fight will end up on the mat sooner rather than later.
Velasquez possesses explosive takedowns and a stifling top game, plus a willingness to throw down ground-and-pound with abandon. But this is ‘Minotauro’ we are talking about, and the Brazilian veteran will be more than willing to take his licks in order to keep Velasquez in his guard. The key factor in this fight is the fact that Velasquez has never faced a grappler of Nogueira’s level or credentials. Expect the younger fighter to look impressive in the early stages as he shows tidy submission defence and positioning, but ultimately will be outfoxed by the BJJ black-belt, with Nogueira snatching a submission from his back as Velasquez is forced to tap to a triangle choke in the 2nd round.
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez, airs in the U.K at 3am on Sunday, February 21st on ESPN, and the early indications suggest that you do not want to miss this one!
